Our climate has already changed, and further changes are likely as concentrations of greenhouse gases continue to increase. Decision-makers rely on model-based scenarios of future climate to inform planning decisions.
National Climate Change Projections
In Australia, CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology produce projections for Australia’s climate. The latest projections were released in 2015 and are available from Climate Change in Australia website.
The climate change projections use up to 40 global climate models driven by four greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenarios and are presented for eight regions of Australia which will be affected differently by climate change. Results have been prepared for 21 climate variables (both on the land and in the ocean) and for four 20-year time periods (centred on 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090).
The website includes 14 interactive tools for exploring the data at different levels of complexity, to help improve accessibility, useability and relevancy of the projections for the Australian public. The tools range from the Regional Climate Change Explorer, a tool which presents statements of projected change for each region, through to a projections data download facility, the Climate Futures Tool. Climate Change in Australia hosts a “Climate Campus” for learning more about climate science and using projections in climate change impact assessments.
More localised projections have been produced for some areas of Australia by state agencies. These are available from:
Global Climate Projections
New global projections have been released as part of the publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report in 2021. These will be incorporated into Australian national and regional climate projections progressively over the next few years. The Australian Government is already collaborating with states, territories and researchers on a roadmap to coordinate work on Australia’s updated climate projections.
Read more
- National Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategy
- Climate adaptation
- Climate change science
- Our climate services and tools
- Nature-based solutions for climate
- Our environment climate change initiatives
- Our agricultural climate change initiatives
- Our oceans climate change initiatives
- Emissions reduction
- International climate adaptation
- Our publications and resources
See more:
- IPCC Sixth Assessment report
- IPCC Sixth Assessment report Interactive Regional Climate Atlas: climate information for four Australian regions
- Climate change in Australia