Queensland

Australian Crop Report: September edition

Seasonal conditions over winter were very favourable in some key crop growing regions in Queensland. There was above average winter rainfall in southern cropping regions, which followed above average rainfall over summer and autumn. Soil moisture levels at the end of winter were average to above average across much of the Darling Downs, which puts crops in a strong position at the end of winter. However, seasonal conditions over winter were less favourable in Central Queensland and areas near Roma where winter rainfall was around average. Soil moisture levels were below average at the end of winter in these regions. Early spring rainfall will be important for crops in these regions to achieve average yields.

The Bureau of Meteorology's latest three-month rainfall outlook, issued on 2 September 2021, indicates a greater than 75% chance of above median rainfall across Queensland cropping regions in spring. While the forecast rainfall will boost crops through the critical flowering and grain filling stages, there is a risk that excess rainfall during harvest may cause harvest delays and quality downgrades.

Winter crop production in Queensland is forecast to increase by 63% in 2021–22 to 2.7 million tonnes due to an increase in planted area and an expected increase in yields, which are forecast to be above average in southern cropping regions and around average in northern cropping regions. Area planted to winter crops in Queensland is estimated to have increased by 9% to around 1.3 million hectares in 2021–22. This increase was mostly driven by the favourable conditions in southern Queensland and land being available after it was left fallow during the summer cropping season. High wheat and pulse prices also provided an incentive to producers to increase area planted to winter crops.

Wheat production is forecast to rise by 60% in 2021–22 to 1.8 million tonnes, driven by an increase in the average yield to above average. The favourable seasonal conditions in southern Queensland are expected to drive the expected increase in the average yield. Area planted to wheat in Queensland is estimated to have remained largely unchanged in 2021–22 at around 750,000 hectares, despite high wheat prices. A late finish to the grain sorghum season in 2020–21, and below average rainfall in Central Queensland, limited the area planted to wheat.

Barley production is forecast to increase by 57% in 2021–22 to around 377,000 tonnes, driven by an increase in the average yield to above average. The higher average yield is expected to result from the favourable seasonal conditions in southern Queensland. Area planted to barley is estimated to have declined by 4% to around 130,000 hectares. The decrease is due to plentiful pasture across Australia and an abundant supply of other feed grains.

Chickpea production is forecast to increase by 71% in 2021–22 to around 471,000 tonnes, driven mainly by an increase in the average yield to above average. The increase in the average yield is expected because seasonal conditions to date have been very favourable for chickpeas. Area planted to chickpeas is estimated to have increased by 35% in 2021–22 to 310,000 hectares in response to good soil moisture levels in southern Queensland and high international prices.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area based on planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent change are relative to last year.
Sources: ABARES

Area planted to summer crops in Queensland is forecast to increase by 9% in 2021–22 to 636,000 hectares in response to favourable planting conditions, high water storage levels and the expectation of above average summer rainfall. Production is expected to increase by 27% to around 1.9 million tonnes, driven by the forecast increase in planted area and an expected increase in yields.

Area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to remain unchanged at around 380,000 hectares in 2021–22. Area planted to grain sorghum in Central Queensland is expected to remain above average after a successful season in 2020–21 and high prices. However, competition for area from cotton will constrain these increases. Favourable seasonal conditions are expected in spring and are forecast to lay a solid foundation for above average yields. Production is forecast to increase by 24% to just over 1.2 million tonnes.

Area planted to cotton is expected to increase by 45% to 152,000 hectares in 2021–22. Full on-farm water storages and a favourable outlook for seasonal conditions in spring are expected to drive increases in irrigated and dryland planting. Yields are expected to increase and cotton production is forecast to rise by 40% to 312,000 tonnes of lint and 441,000 tonnes of seed.

Note: Yields are based on area planted, except cotton which is based on area harvested. Area based on planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent change are relative to last year.
Sources: ABARES