New South Wales

Australian Crop Report: September edition

Seasonal conditions in New South Wales have been excellent this season with above to very much above average rainfall from March to July in nearly all winter cropping regions. August rainfall was above average in parts of central and northern News South Wales but below average in southern New South Wales.

According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (September to November), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 2 September 2021, spring rainfall is very likely to be above average in all cropping regions in New South Wales. All areas have a greater than 80% chance of exceeding median rainfall.

With average to above average levels of soil moisture at the end of winter, particularly in central and northern cropping regions, the favourable outlook for spring rainfall will likely result in significantly above average yields. However, well above average spring rainfall may delay harvest, and result in a greater proportion of low-protein wheat and an increased likelihood of damaged and downgraded grain.

Winter crop production is forecast to fall by 15% in New South Wales in 2021–22 to 16.1 million tonnes. However, forecast production is the second highest on record and 55% above the 10-year average to 2020–21. Yields are expected to be lower than the extraordinary yields achieved in 2020–21 but still be well above average. Area planted to winter crops in New South Wales is estimated to be just over 6.1 million hectares, a marginal increase from the large area planted in 2020–21 and 15% above the 10-year average to 2020–21.

Wheat production is forecast to be 11.1 million tonnes in 2021–22, 15% lower than the record high achieved last year but 65% above the 10-year average to 2020–21. The average yield is forecast to fall to 3.0 tonnes per hectare, 46% above the 10-year average to 2020–21. Area planted to wheat is estimated to have decreased by 3% to 3.7 million hectares, reflecting a shift into canola and pulses. Despite being lower than last year, planted area is still 19% above the 10-year average to 2020–21.

Barley production is forecast to be 2.7 million tonnes in 2021–22, 18% lower than the record high achieved last year but 49% above the 10-year average to 2020–21. The average yield is forecast to be 2.95 tonnes per hectare, 13% lower than 2020–21 but 39% above the 10-year average to 2020–21. Area planted to barley is estimated to have fallen by 5% to 900,000 hectares but is still 10% above the 10-year average to 2020–21.

Canola production is forecast to be just under 1.4 million tonnes in 2021–22, largely unchanged from last year and 44% above the 10-year average to 2020–21. The average yield is forecast to fall to 1.7 tonnes per hectare, 25% above the 10-average to 2020–21. Area planted to canola is estimated to have increased by 29% to 800,000 hectares in 2021–22, reflecting the timely early season rainfall and expected high returns.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area based on planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent change are relative to last year.
Sources: ABARES

Area planted to summer crops in New South Wales in 2021–22 is forecast to increase by 43% to around 637,000 hectares, reflecting an increase in the area planted to all major summer crops, most notably cotton. Production is forecast to increase by 38% to around 2.4 million tonnes.

Area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to increase by 15% to around 150,000 hectares in 2021–22, reflecting the positive spring outlook. The average yield is forecast to be average at around 3.20 tonnes per hectare. Production is forecast to be around 480,000 tonnes.

Area planted to cotton is forecast to increase by 78% in 2021–22 to 344,000 hectares. The forecast increase is driven by increased water storage levels, the favourable spring rainfall outlook and higher cotton prices. Area planted to both irrigated and dryland cotton are expected to increase. The increased availability of water is expected to result in good yields and production is forecast to be around 1 million tonnes of seed and 732,000 tonnes of lint.

Area planted to rice is forecast to increase by 44% to around 65,000 hectares in 2021–22 reflecting an increase in the availability of irrigation water in rice growing regions.

Note: Yields are based on area planted, except cotton which is based on area harvested. Area based on planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent change are relative to last year.
Sources: ABARES