Australian Crop Report: December edition
Total winter crop production in New South Wales is forecast to fall by 6% in 2021–21 to 17.8 million tonnes, 72% above the 10-year average to 2021–21 and the second highest on record. Area planted to winter crops in New South Wales is well above average reflecting the excellent start to the winter cropping season. Significantly above average winter crop yields (second only to the record 2020–21 season) are expected.
Seasonal conditions in New South Wales have been excellent this season with above to very much above average rainfall throughout the growing season in nearly all winter cropping regions. Early spring conditions were ideal with mild temperatures, above average September rainfall and minimal frost events all contributing to above to very much above average yield potential. However, late November rainfall has been untimely and has resulted in harvest delays which will result in quality downgrades and damage to crops that were ready for harvest. Flooding in central west and northern New South Wales is likely to have resulted in total crop loss along river systems but the impact on total tonnage produced will be limited. There is a risk that continued high rainfall in December will result in further damage and more cases of total crop loss if crops are unable to be harvested.
The summer crop outlook is still favourable, although record high November rainfall has likely damaged some early sown crops and may limit the ability to complete intended planting programs if it remains too wet to access paddocks. The delay in harvesting winter crops may also limit the area available to plant summer crops. If crops are able to be planted in northern New South Wales, the outlook for above average summer rainfall will likely benefit summer crop yield prospects.
Total summer crop production is forecast to increase by 59% in 2021–22 to 2.8 million tonnes, 41% above the 10-year average to 2020–21 reflecting both an increase in the area planted and above average yields.
| Crop | Area '000 ha |
Yield t/ha |
Production kt |
Area change % |
Prod. change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 3,700 | 3.30 | 12,210 | –3 | –7 |
| Barley | 900 | 3.20 | 2,880 | –5 | –11 |
| Canola | 800 | 2.00 | 1,600 | 29 | 15 |
Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area based on planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to last year.
Sources: ABARES
| Crop | Area '000 ha |
Yield t/ha |
Production kt |
Area change % |
Prod. change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grain sorghum | 160 | 3.60 | 576 | 23 | 17 |
| Cotton lint | 385 | 2.00 | 770 | 100 | 100 |
| Cottonseed | 385 | 2.83 | 1,090 | 100 | 100 |
| Rice | 84 | 10.20 | 857 | 86 | 90 |
Note: Yields are based on area planted, except cotton which is based on area harvested. Area based on planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to last year.
Sources: ABARES