The Agricultural Commodities Report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia's agricultural production and exports. Underpinning the forecasts contained in the Agricultural Commodities Report are ABARES outlook for global commodity prices, demand and supply.
Agricultural overview
1 March 2022
Record gross value of Australian agriculture
Australian crop report
1 March 2022
Summer crop prospects in 2021–22 are excellent. Winter crop production in 2021–22 estimated to reach a higher national record.
Economic overview
1 March 2022
Considerable uncertainty exists over global growth in the short-term
Seasonal conditions
1 March 2022
Record global crop production despite impact of La Niña. Favourable growing conditions continue across eastern and northern Australia
Coarse grains
1 March 2022
Coarse grain prices to ease due to increasing global supply.
Oilseeds
1 March 2022
Decreased canola price driven by recovering global canola production.
Horticulture
1 March 2022
Improving labour situation expected to support production prospects over the medium term.
Wine and wine grapes
1 March 2022
Elevated inventories and disrupted sales to see grape prices fall.
Sugar
1 March 2022
Fall in international sugar price driven by recovering global production.
Natural fibres
1 March 2022
Supply chain disruptions easing and global growth recovering means mixed prospects for fibres.
Beef and veal
1 March 2022
Easing rebuilding sees prices fall, but remain historically high.
Sheep meat
1 March 2022
Strong export demand in the US is expected to support high lamb prices.
Dairy
1 March 2022
Constrained global milk supply and strong global demand is forecast to push the farmgate milk price higher.
Featured articles
Australian rice markets in 2020
Analysis of Australian rice markets in 2020.
African swine fever
Containment of African swine fever in China and industrialisation of the Chinese pork industry will impact global markets.
Water market outlook
Provides a summary of water market conditions and the outlook for allocation prices in the sMDB
If you have any feedback about this publication or our forecasts, please contact us at ABARES Commodities.
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| Agricultural commodities – March 2022 PDF | 5.4 MB |
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Previous reports are also available for download.
The Agricultural Commodities Report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia's agricultural production and exports.
Underpinning the forecasts contained in the Agricultural Commodities Report are ABARES outlook for global commodity prices, demand and supply. Each edition of the report factors in how changes to this outlook affect Australian producers and the value of their produce. Important risks to the outlook are also considered and discussed in each report.
A ‘medium term’ (5 year) outlook is published each year in the March edition of the Agricultural Commodities Report. Each June, September and December edition contains a short-term outlook. In June, the forecast period is to the end of the next Australian financial year (July to June). In September and December, the forecast period is to the end of the current Australian financial year.
Recent research
Introducing ABARES historical agricultural forecast database
Published 14 April 2021.
This paper provides a summary and analysis of forecast performance using ABARES newly released historical agricultural forecast database.
Seasonal climate scenarios for medium-term forecasts
Published 3 March 2020.
A challenge for medium-term forecasts of agricultural markets is that no reliable seasonal climate forecasts exist beyond the current growing season in southern Australia. ABARES is trialling a scenario approach to provide insights into the future state of Australian agriculture.
Farmers’ terms of trade: Update to farm costs and prices paid
Published 3 March 2020.
This paper reports on the results of an update to the way ABARES calculates the farmers' terms of trade (FToT) indicators. This includes updates to the price indexes for farm outputs and inputs to production, and measures of farm costs and net farm returns.