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Agricultural outlook

The Agricultural Commodities Report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia's agricultural production and exports. Underpinning the forecasts contained in the Agricultural Commodities Report are ABARES outlook for global commodity prices, demand and supply.

Agricultural overview

1 March 2022

Record gross value of Australian agriculture

Read more about Agricultural overview

Australian crop report

1 March 2022

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Summer crop prospects in 2021–22 are excellent. Winter crop production in 2021–22 estimated to reach a higher national record.

Read more about Australian crop report

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Forecasts and historical statistics.

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Economic overview


1 March 2022

Considerable uncertainty exists over global growth in the short-term

Read more about Economic overview

Seasonal conditions


1 March 2022

Record global crop production despite impact of La Niña. Favourable growing conditions continue across eastern and northern Australia

Read more about Seasonal conditions

 

Wheat


1 March 2022

World wheat prices to ease but remain historically high.

Read more about wheat

Coarse grains


1 March 2022

Coarse grain prices to ease due to increasing global supply.

Read more about coarse grain

Oilseeds


Forecasts and historical statistics.

1 March 2022

Decreased canola price driven by recovering global canola production.

Read more about oilseeds

Horticulture


1 March 2022

Improving labour situation expected to support production prospects over the medium term.

Read more about horticulture

Wine and wine grapes


1 March 2022

Elevated inventories and disrupted sales to see grape prices fall.

Read more about wine and wine grapes

Sugar


1 March 2022

Fall in international sugar price driven by recovering global production.

Read more about sugar

Natural fibres


1 March 2022

Supply chain disruptions easing and global growth recovering means mixed prospects for fibres.

Read more about natural fibres

Beef and veal


1 March 2022

Easing rebuilding sees prices fall, but remain historically high.

Read more about beef and veal

Sheep meat


Forecasts and historical statistics.

1 March 2022

Strong export demand in the US is expected to support high lamb prices.

Read more about sheep meat

Dairy


1 March 2022

Constrained global milk supply and strong global demand is forecast to push the farmgate milk price higher.

Read more about dairy

 
 

Featured articles

Australian rice markets in 2020

Analysis of Australian rice markets in 2020.

Read more about Australian rice markets in 2020

Meat consumption

Analysis of global meat consumption trends.

Read more about Meat consumption

African swine fever

Containment of African swine fever in China and industrialisation of the Chinese pork industry will impact global markets.

Containment of African swine fever in China and industrialisation of the Chinese pork industry will impact global markets.

Read more about African swine fever

Water market outlook

Provides a summary of water market conditions and the outlook for allocation prices in the sMDB

Read more about Water market outlook

 
 

If you have any feedback about this publication or our forecasts, please contact us at ABARES Commodities.

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Agricultural commodities – March 2022 PDF  5.4 MB

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Previous reports are also available for download.

The Agricultural Commodities Report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia's agricultural production and exports.

Underpinning the forecasts contained in the Agricultural Commodities Report are ABARES outlook for global commodity prices, demand and supply. Each edition of the report factors in how changes to this outlook affect Australian producers and the value of their produce. Important risks to the outlook are also considered and discussed in each report.

A ‘medium term’ (5 year) outlook is published each year in the March edition of the Agricultural Commodities Report. Each June, September and December edition contains a short-term outlook. In June, the forecast period is to the end of the next Australian financial year (July to June). In September and December, the forecast period is to the end of the current Australian financial year.

Recent research

Introducing ABARES historical agricultural forecast database

Published 14 April 2021.

This paper provides a summary and analysis of forecast performance using ABARES newly released historical agricultural forecast database.

 

Seasonal climate scenarios for medium-term forecasts

Published 3 March 2020.

A challenge for medium-term forecasts of agricultural markets is that no reliable seasonal climate forecasts exist beyond the current growing season in southern Australia. ABARES is trialling a scenario approach to provide insights into the future state of Australian agriculture.

 

Farmers’ terms of trade: Update to farm costs and prices paid

Published 3 March 2020.

This paper reports on the results of an update to the way ABARES calculates the farmers' terms of trade (FToT) indicators. This includes updates to the price indexes for farm outputs and inputs to production, and measures of farm costs and net farm returns.

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Last updated: 01 March 2022

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We acknowledge the Traditional Owners of country throughout Australia and recognise their continuing connection to land, waters and culture. We pay our respects to their Elders past, present and emerging.